It is very hard to tell simple stories about Brazil.

By fleeing for the United States, Flávio Bolsonaro has escaped prison -- and probably ceded the Bolsonaro family's role as the leaders of the Brazilian conservative movement.

The controversial 2-hour delay in voting at some ballot stations in Brazil yesterday only resulted in 34,000 extra votes -- irrelevant, given Lula beat Bolsonaro by 4.43 million Source: TSE (electoral court)

I sense that Brazilian power brokers that matter don't really want to go down the path of a contested election. But we shouldn’t underestimate the power of the Bolsonaro family. They can make life difficult for Lula for weeks and months to come, I told @AP apnews.com/article/brazil-election-lula-bo...Mostrar mais

NEW: Amid the euphoria of Maria Corina Machado's return, Benigno Alarcón notes: It "implies no concessions for the regime, whose status holds: It tolerates a protected leader’s comeback and punishes the periphery at low cost. One day before the return, it held another local leade…Mostrar mais

What a comeback. We will need time to properly understand it. But I think this was a 20th century politician who, at the very last possible moment, figured out how to run a 21st century campaign. After his first round loss, Lula started carrying a smartphone for the first time i…Mostrar mais

And now I am expected to sleep??

The small community of Latin Americanists has been arguing for 2 years about whether it's a "right-wing wave" or an "anti-incumbent wave" and huh I guess we were all wrong tonight eh

Right wing leaders of Chile and Paraguay very quickly recognizing Lula victory

👀 At victory rally, Lula hands microphone to Alckmin, who speaks first.

Brazil. Could be a long, tense night — or longer. Both sides alleging irregularities / problems. Single Supreme Court judge ordered 2 hour extension in voting, but some stations closed anyway. I have sources on both sides talking about legal challenges. Sorry to say, looking like…Mostrar mais

Confusão

Just another Sunday in LatAm!!! 😂😂

I accompanied my favorite Brazilian to vote. Queens College, NY

Enough polls, prediction markets and overconfident pundits. Let’s see the votes!! Good luck, Brazil

Starting a decade ago, the Brazilian echoes of American politics became too eerie to deny -- like watching a spinoff of a U.S. television series with a two-year production lag and a few homegrown plot twists. WHY would two nations separated by thousands of miles, with such diff…Mostrar mais

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A stunning 70% of Brazilians say they will definitely watch the final Lula-Flávio debate tonight. Another 15% say they might. Source: Ipespe poll, via @folha

“O Brasil caiu na nossa polarização", diz Brian Winter, um dos maiores estudiosos do nosso país nos Estados Unidos, ao fazer um paralelo entre as eleições presidenciais de domingo e as chamadas 'midterms’ exame.com/mundo/o-brasil-caiu-na-nossa-pol...Mostrar mais

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Time and again over the last 10 years, we've learned not to take polling too literally. But yes it does seem the Brazil race continues to narrow, with Datafolha showing a 50-50 race ahead of Sunday's 2nd round. What's happening? Lula and allies have "awakened" after losing the…Mostrar mais

NEW: Pessimism about Guatemalan President Arévalo's security policy was already worsening prior to Saturday's assassination of Juan Francisco Solórzano Foppa, a high-profile former prosecutor, writes @mirandamazarieg for AQ. The reverberations could spill into next year's elect…Mostrar mais

Is Latin America finally moving up the global high-tech value chain? Some remarkable numbers suggest the region is making progress. A few highlights from a fascinating new @AmerQuarterly piece in collaboration with JP Morgan Private Bank: • 🇲🇽 Mexico briefly overtook Taiwan as…Mostrar mais

We’ve lost one of the all-time great brasilianistas. Riordan Roett, for 45 years (!) a professor at SAIS and author of 25+ books, passed away on Saturday, the school confirms. His scholarship won him the the Order of Rio Branco (Brazil), the Order of Bernardo O’Higgins (Chile) an…Mostrar mais

Yes, a Flávio government would surely be closer to Washington, but I don't expect major disruptions with China either. “You’ve seen versions of this all over Latin America, with leaders on the new right who have very quickly pivoted to a more neutral or nonaligned posture when it…Mostrar mais

Flávio showed he is the most polished, prepared and palatable of the Bolsonaros. Lula landed a few good punches. Overall though I doubt the Brazil debate changed any votes

Yes, obviously, the pre-debate coverage on Brazilian TV included at least 3 mentions of Joe Biden

It does feel like Lula is closing the gap, and not just because of recent polls like today’s from Quaest. His recent rallies were well attended, social media engagement has been better, and the pro Bolsonaro right has been yelling at each other about low turnout and dangers of cl…Mostrar mais

Fujimori approval falls from 43% to 28% in just a month, apparently on economic and crime fears, but you also sorta wonder if this is just normal Peruvian politics. (Home of the 3% approval rating!) www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-14...Mostrar mais

Proud to be speaking at Yale University's Jackson School of Global Affairs on Thursday with my friend President Iván Duque. We'll be discussing the seismic changes currently underway in Latin America, and the UN/CEPAL commission we both participated in over last 2 years looking a…Mostrar mais

At a time when Latin American countries are recognizing Delcy Rodriguez and reestablishing ties with Venezuela, the exception once again is... Uruguay. "Just as illegitimate as Maduro," Uruguay's foreign minister told @folha . "Nothing has changed." A bit of history: Venezuela…Mostrar mais

NEW: President Sheinbaum is losing patience with the Trump administration, recent reports say. Should Mexico “pull a Canada,” and take a more aggressive approach? “The instinct to think big, and try to come up with a strategic survival plan for coming years, is fundamentally cor…Mostrar mais

10 years now my mom has been calling him “Bolnosaro.” Every year or so I gently correct her. #brasilianistProblems

3 days after election, Lula publicly blaming his campaign chief for a campaign “that fell short of my possibility,” @folha reports. Still no sign of major new messaging or material. Centrão lining up behind Flávio, who’s acting like president already in spots & speeches. Brazil…Mostrar mais

I have deleted this post after learning the decision was made in September, but only became public now. Meaning there is no link between timing and the election. Sorry

“Everyone knows my father, but my daughters, my wife and my mother made me the way I am.” Most commentary since Sunday has focused on Lula’s shortcomings, but Flávio also ran a good campaign. The quote above, from his 1st campaign TV ad (images attached), tried to show a softer,…Mostrar mais

La ola conservadora volvió a Brasil con insólitos paralelismos con EE.UU. y solo una “bomba” la podría frenar Mi artículo hoy para La Nación www.lanacion.com.ar/el-mundo/la-ola-conser...Mostrar mais

Another way of thinking about yesterday’s result in Brazil: Below is the Number 1 hit in Brazil today — a “sertanejo” song, tropicalized version of U.S. country music, you’ll see the cowboy hats in the audience. THIS is the prevailing culture in Brazil today, conservative and…Mostrar mais

There will be excitement in markets, and it will be largely justified. Flávio Bolsonaro will have greater latitude than expected to pursue his agenda. This will begin with negotiations with Congress for an amnesty for his father Jair Bolsonaro, currently under house arrest. But g…Mostrar mais

The bizarre parallels, yet again. Brazil’s 2026 election, while not over yet, is looking so much like U.S. in 2024. The triumphant return of the “Tropical Trumps,” prevailing over an 80-something president who lost his touch (as if Biden never dropped out), as pocketbook issues,…Mostrar mais

Flávio Bolsonaro will be the next president of Brazil unless the so-called “bomba” is real: The long-rumored existence of additional damning evidence in Banco Master or other scandals, supposedly being “preserved” for the 2nd Round. It could be an urban myth, could be a nothing-b…Mostrar mais

Strong night for Flávio, no doubt now. Will enter 2nd round as clear favorite.

Polls closed in Brazil. Enough predictive hackery, let’s count some votes.

“Polarização apática” www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/10/campan...

Latin America’s economic outlook looks better than any point since the early 2000s, argues Citi in a new report I invited the author, my friend Ernesto Revilla, on the AQ Podcast to explain why americasquarterly.org/article/aq-podcast-i...Mostrar mais

Cards on the table. I expect Flávio Bolsonaro will have the momentum coming out of Sunday’s first round of Brazil election. He may trail Lula in votes but the electoral math will favor him once you add up other candidates (Santos, Cury etc), whose supporters will most likely vote…Mostrar mais

Your daily (?) reminder that Brazil’s election could still be turned upside down by a new scandal or major revelation. I try to be responsible, and I really do not like posting about speculation — BUT high-level chatter about a video or other incriminating material involving one…Mostrar mais

"El viaje del Canciller Roberto Velasco a Brasilia fue una visita que generó muchos comentarios a lo largo de América del Sur. Y la impresión es que después de varios años que, por una variedad de motivos, la percepción era que México estuvo un poco ausente del debate latinoameri…Mostrar mais

If I had to describe Brazil’s election in 2 words, they’d be “apathetic polarization.” Yes, it’s (still) a 50-50 country, but the clear vibe of the 2026 election is the lack of enthusiasm on either side. You feel it the moment you arrive — so hard to find anybody who’s truly EXCI…Mostrar mais