I spoke to Noam about the fascinating new Vanderbilt Univ survey of +20k people in 21 nations across Latin America, and what it tells us about democracy, economies and immigration. Worth your time americasquarterly.org/article/aq-podcast-h...Mostrar mais

Proud to be speaking today at Princeton’s Brazil Lab alongside the great Celso Rocha de Barros

I have met several members of Brazil's Supreme Court (STF) over the years, and known some of them well. In my opinion, the court's current problems go deeper than any one figure or the lack of a code of ethics, for example. In practice, the STF acts not just as a judicial body, b…Mostrar mais

Lula is struggling with younger voters, especially those under 35 where he is -17% approval. The perils of a candidate who will be 81 on Election Day Overall, he is tied with Flávio Bolsonaro in recent polling.

The shocking thing about Lava Jato was how it touched almost EVERYBODY in the political class and beyond. 10+ years later, surprise, surprise, it's happening again with Banco Master. Core issue(s) still unresolved.

"Keiko Fujimori took office on July 28 with something no Peruvian president has enjoyed in a decade: a functioning economy and the benefit of the doubt. Polls have put her approval between 53% and 60%, with disapproval near 30%. After eight presidents in 10 years, Peruvians are p…Mostrar mais

The Bolsonaros, like others in the global new right including Milei & Trump, have struggled with women voters. Lula currently leads by 9, but his advantage is at risk because of inflation & other pocketbook issues. Can Flávio Bolsonaro capitalize? @traumann writing for AQ…Mostrar mais

I believe Secretary Rubio is 100% committed to the cause of democracy in Venezuela, and that President Trump has doubts. That how the secretary manages this issue will determine not just the future of Venezuela but also possibly the next occupant of the White House. The secretary…Mostrar mais

I have never spoken in a venue quite like this one. It was a great honor to be in Mexico City, and share a stage with President Bachelet, for the launch of @cepal_onu special commission on Latin America's geopolitical & economic future. Thank you to UNAM and rector Leonardo Lomel…Mostrar mais

Americobras? Pemerica? What a world

NEW: How did Colombia's terrible 7.4 earthquake change Abelardo de la Espriella's agenda -- for security and the economy? What can we expect from the latest leader in Latin America's right-wing wave? This week's guest is the great @MauricioCard americasquarterly.org/article/aq-podcast-c...Mostrar mais

Nothing like unos ricos escamoles (ant eggs) to kick off a few days in Mexico! Viva!!!

Soaring grass-roots appetite for new entitlement programs and state intervention in economy — just as debt reaches unsustainable levels. Brazil? Argentina? Nope

Venezuela’s electricity crisis is an existential threat to its recovery story: “While Venezuelans from non-major urban centers have been suffering from constant blackouts for years, the problem is metastasizing to all of the country. Anecdotal evidence points to daily five- to s…Mostrar mais

Jair Bolsonaro pressured military leaders to help him overturn the 2022 election after he lost, former Air Force commander — who says he voted for Bolsonaro twice — says in new book. Bolsonaro currently under house arrest for related charges www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2026/08/houve-...Mostrar mais

I was on vacation last week, so here’s an update on what’s changed in the Brazil election: …

The old line “Only 1 in 4 Americans have a passport” — sometimes used to explain our tendency toward isolationism — isn’t true anymore. The ratio has doubled in 25 years! I wonder when/if it will start to trickle into our foreign policy choices

Trump administration revokes visa for Brazilian ambassador as part of ongoing diplomatic dispute with Lula, with Brazil’s Oct 3 election the obvious subtext. Truth be told, I don’t think this — or this week’s incidents with Pr Milei — change a single vote either way. People will…Mostrar mais

El desafío de Keiko Fujimori “será conseguir lo que ninguno de sus ocho predecesores logró: gobernar con eficacia sin debilitar la democracia; combatir al crimen organizado sin violar los derechos humanos; reactivar la economía sin desatender lo social; atacar la corrupción, y co…Mostrar mais

What is Latin America's role in a rapidly changing world? For past year I've had the honor of participating in a UN panel led by former Presidents Iván Duque and Michelle Bachelet -- a rare, multi-partisan effort to think about the next 10-20 years. How to balance U.S. vs China.…Mostrar mais

Americas Quarterly has published our overview of Brazil's election, looking at the 4 main candidates -How they got here -Why they might win -Why they might lose -What they might do

This blew my mind. AI video taking us back to São Paulo in 1800, in today’s “influencer” style. Really well done, funny, better than anything I’ve seen like this. (Portuguese) Insta: www.instagram.com/reel/Dba4vWyOz5y/

9 weeks until Brazil's election and Flávio Bolsonaro still does not have a running mate. He offered the job this week to Tereza Cristina Corrêa, a very widely respected senator and former ag minister -- but her party vetoed the nomination because it wants to remain neutral in the…Mostrar mais

Keiko Fujimori takes power. Can she keep it? That and other big questions on economy, mining and Peru's balancing act between Washington & Beijing -- with the great @aethorne as guest americasquarterly.org/article/aq-podcast-k...Mostrar mais

Over the last decade Latin America has been a pretty good model for understanding U.S. politics. Back in 2015-16, my first friends who truly anticipated Pr Trump's appeal & how he would govern were Argentines & Brazilians. "We've seen this movie before!" Today, I look at Trump's…Mostrar mais

How does the Trump administration see Latin America today? Elbridge Colby, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth's top policy adviser, writes of a "historic opportunity for regional neighbors to work together" in this guest op-ed for AQ: americasquarterly.org/article/elbridge-col...Mostrar mais

Venezuela's opposition and "interim" government will meet on Saturday. It's at least the 17TH such dialogue since Chavismo took power, though obviously this time is... different What is on the table? What can we realistically expect? What is role of the U.S.?

Terceira via americana Não tem jeito

Começado já para a galera que fala português (com sotaque texano) Link: www.youtube.com/live/hj-ETva4VO4

What superb work the NYT is doing out of Latin America these days. The Marco-Delcy story, Abelardo client list, Guyana ferry, Diosdado, Cubans amid the fuel crisis -- just a few recent gems that come to mind.

My 2 cents on AI in the foreign policy/commentary space: I think analysts who use it too much are planting seeds of our own destruction. I think it’s fine to use for research and brainstorming (I do) — but the moment your output starts to SOUND like AI, and lose your own human vo…Mostrar mais

Good news out of Brazil: The murder rate fell again last year and is now down 40% from its 2017 peak. Many possible reasons why, from fewer clashes among gangs to more effective policing in some places. Femicides and killings by police remain high, as do other kinds of crimes.…Mostrar mais

Como a onda conservadora na América Latina afeta o Brasil? Quais são os desafios caso Lula seja reeleito e precise trabalhar com Milei, Fujimori, Abelardo e outros governos vizinhos de direita? Será um privilégio participar deste fórum organizado pela Fundação Fernando Henrique C…Mostrar mais

José Antonio Kast is a conservative who loves the U.S. — but Chile sends a higher percentage of its exports to China than any other LatAm nation. How is Kast trying to strike a balance? Intriguing piece by @AndresVillarG for AQ americasquarterly.org/article/how-chile-ca...Mostrar mais

Lula turns 80 today.

A great day for Javier Milei. His party will end up with 40%+ of votes for Congress — they may have been content with 35%. His reform agenda is now reenergized, markets are rallying. Yes, Donald Trump also played a key role. Energy in 2025 is clearly with the “American” right

An impeachment and a Nobel Prize, just another day in LatAm 👍

I’ve never met anyone more brave than Maria Corina Machado. Even with a Nobel prize I’m not sure the world will understand the sacrifices she has made, all in the hope for a free Venezuela

Regarding this morning’s Trump-Lula call: The Brazilians think it went well. But Trump naming Marco Rubio the point man going forward is the toughest possible path for Brazil — he is a longtime Lula skeptic who may insist on demands related to Venezuela, China and more

Prior to yesterday, some in Washington and Brasília were feeling more optimistic about a possible "deal." The focus had broadened from Jair Bolsonaro's trial to include areas like Brazil's tech regulations, critical minerals and migration. 1/

On Brazil-US, I would advise caution about unsourced media reports. There are LOTS of people out there pushing narratives, trying to force decisions. But only one man, given to wearing red neckties, who will actually decide.

Everybody at the Brazil poker table is going “all in” right now

For Brazil vs USA, the central question this week is whether Trump will opt for some kind of nuclear option like suspension of tech services, visa processing or OFAC sanctions - similar to his threats against Colombia in January - or more traditional, targeted sanctions.

A complicating factor in the US-Brazil confrontation is the unique power of Brazil’s Supreme Court. There is arguably nothing else quite like it in the world. It can open investigations, acts as court to judge politicians, and single judges have immense powers.

Brasilianists today

Brazil Supreme Court escalates, putting ankle bracelet on Bolsonaro and restricting his contact including w/ his son In US. Expect reaction from White House.

I see many Brazilian friends saying this is really about tariffs, BRICS or China. I disagree. I think it’s primarily about President Trump’s trauma from his trials and the parallels he sees the Bolsonaro family facing. Which makes this much harder to negotiate

I don't see an easy way out of the Trump vs Lula confrontation following today's 50% tariff announcement. Trump's previous battles with Petro, Sheinbaum and Mulino de-escalated relatively quickly, but those are countries with very US-connected economies & security relationships -…Mostrar mais

Pope Leo XIV will be "León" in Spanish and "Leão" in Portuguese, names which are literally "Lion," and therefore sound vastly better.

I'M STILL HERE is of course about politics & the horrors of dictatorship -- but it is also a wonderful testimony to Brazilian values of family & resolutely smiling in the face of extreme adversity. So happy it won the Oscar. Parabéns.