Thread

Cards on the table. I expect Flávio Bolsonaro will have the momentum coming out of Sunday’s first round of Brazil election. He may trail Lula in votes but the electoral math will favor him once you add up other candidates (Santos, Cury etc), whose supporters will most likely vote for a conservative in the 2nd round. Today’s Brazil is more conservative than 20 or even 5 years ago and the wind is blowing that direction throughout LatAm at present. Flávio will look like the frontrunner, and markets will move accordingly, but the question then becomes: What happens in the final 3 weeks before the Oct 25 runoff? Will there be an “October surprise” as I referenced in previous post? Will Lula be able to spend enough and use still considerable advantages of incumbency? (Jair Bolsonaro remains the only Brazilian incumbent to lose reelection bid since democracy returned in 1980s.) It may be close enough that any unexpected event could decide the election. Remains a tough one to call though at present Flávio seems to have the upper hand