Thread

If I had to describe Brazil’s election in 2 words, they’d be “apathetic polarization.” Yes, it’s (still) a 50-50 country, but the clear vibe of the 2026 election is the lack of enthusiasm on either side. You feel it the moment you arrive — so hard to find anybody who’s truly EXCITED to vote for Lula or Flávio. So different from 2018 or 2022 when Brazilians felt there was so much at stake — because of the bad economy, the pandemic and the threats to democracy. This time around, voters say meh, the economy is OK but my salary seems worth less, Lula is OK but old, Flávio has skeletons but is not perceived as aggressive as his dad. In this… windless environment even the slightest breeze can seem relevant. Flávio is currently having a moment in polls, it’s probably because of what’s happening in Supreme Court, but I’ve spoken to analysts who wonder if it’s actually voters reacting to higher fuel prices from Iran war and overall inflationary pressures and household debt. It’s a VERY hard election to call because it’s simultaneously very close but the level of conviction among many voters is so low. Flávio slight favorite today but for now I’d avoiding making big bets either way. PS “apathetic polarization” is a bit academic for me but the best I could do 👍🙏