Thread

Time and again over the last 10 years, we've learned not to take polling too literally. But yes it does seem the Brazil race continues to narrow, with Datafolha showing a 50-50 race ahead of Sunday's 2nd round. What's happening? Lula and allies have "awakened" after losing the 1st round, running an effective digital campaign that increased Flávio Bolsonaro's negatives. (A piece of color: Lula said this week he just started carrying a smartphone for 1st time in his life -- truly.) Also, the power of a desperate incumbent: Lula announced a 15% increase in Bolsa Familia, and brought forward payment for October so it landed just before the runoff 🧐. Plus, usd $3 billion in debt forgiveness for small companies, $800 mi in fuel subsidies... The total cost of election-year "bondades" is now estimated at usd $59 billion by IFI, an org affiliated with Senate. The bottom line: The math still looks very tough for Lula. As we said after 1st round, he would have to pull majority of votes from 3rd party candidates (who were all right of center), turn out many who abstained and probably steal some Flávio votes too. As I keep saying, today's Brazil is on balance a center-right country. Many dispassionate observers still think Flávio has a lead of about 2% -- which remember in Brazil equals about 2 million people. Still, it's close -- and I go back to my original description of "apathetic polarization" for this 2026 race. It's superficially a 50-50 country, but you also have a large number of voters (a third?) who are not really inspired by either candidate, and some could conceivably switch in last days or even hours. The final 72 hours will see a crucial Friday night debate on TV Globo, another wave of scandal allegations (watch out for a Flávio video) and -- most important -- an absolute tidal wave of memes, fake news and AI slop on WhatsApp, etc, in one of the world's most terminally online countries (+9 hours a day on avg, according to one study). Flávio still a slight favorite, but not over yet.