Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷

598 Voos
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷

Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷

@OliverStuenkel

Autor e Professor de Relações Internacionais @CarnegieEndow @FGV Colunista @estadao @foreignpolicy https://t.co/M3PMFBcbwE

www.oliverstuenkel.comIngressou em março de 2026
0Seguindo8Seguidores
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·4h
The Bolsonaro family has now lost two eminently winnable presidential elections in a row (2022 and 2026). Yet they also led a significant right-wing shift in Congress. Big question will be whether more moderate conservative voices will challenge the clan’s hegemony on the right.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·19h
I expect Flávio Bolsonaro’s refusal to recognize the result to be less disruptive than his father’s refusal to concede four years ago. Unlike Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, Flávio does not control the government. Nor did he spend months before the vote, as his father did, casting doubt…
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·19h
It’ll be fascinating to see how Bolsonarismo reacts to Flávio’s defeat today. The Bolsonaro family has been hegemonic on Brazil’s right since 2018, yet a growing number of voices will point out that a more moderate candidate with a different last name could have beaten Lula.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·21h
Lula’s win ends a spooky parallel between U.S. and Brazilian politics: Trump wins in 2016, Bolsonaro in 2018. Both lose 4 years later, refuse to concede; supporters storm the capital. Then an octogenarian incumbent runs again. Biden quit, Trump won; Lula stayed, beat Flávio.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·21h
Given a margin of more than four million votes, roughly double that of 2022, a decision by Flávio Bolsonaro to question the result is unlikely to produce meaningful consequences. The two-hour extension of voting, criticized by some on the right, is not enough to sustain a campaig…
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·21h
In retrospect, losing the first round was the best thing that could have happened to Lula: it jolted his campaign, quieted the infighting and mobilized his supporters. Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round win, by contrast, bred overconfidence in his camp.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·22h
If Flávio loses, Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to back his son over Tarcísio de Freitas will be widely seen as a decisive error. Many on the right will argue that Tarcísio, who polled better against Lula and was the centrão’s favorite, would have had a better shot. Jair, aware of his…
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·22h
If Flávio Bolsonaro loses this, he’ll largely have himself to blame. His first-round win bred overconfidence: allies began jockeying for ministries in public, and his campaign seemed to take centrist voters for granted.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·22h
If Lula wins tonight, it will elevate Rafael Fonteles, the governor of Piauí, who took over the campaign’s communication strategy after the first-round defeat. Young, moderate and just re-elected with almost 71% of the vote, he would emerge as a potential leader of the post-Lula…
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·22h
Over the past 20 months, the Latin American left has lost seven out of seven presidential elections. Tonight, it increasingly looks as if Lula will end the right’s winning streak, in what would amount to a strategic defeat for Trump, who has systematically sought to strengthen th…
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·23h
Lula overtakes Flávio Bolsonaro with about half the votes counted. Polymarket now gives him a 95% chance of winning. As recently as last night, traders put his odds at around 17%. If he holds on, it would rank among the most remarkable comebacks in Brazilian electoral history.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·23h
If Lula loses tonight, the defeat will trace back to a sluggish, poorly coordinated first-round campaign. Lula himself admitted it was the least organized of all his campaigns since 1989. Finishing second on Oct 4 jolted his team, injected energy and forced the president to focus…
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·23h
Brazil: whoever wins, blank and spoiled ballots are running very low so far. Both campaigns’ get-out-the-vote efforts seem to have paid off. I know people who have largely stopped working these past weeks to volunteer, trying to get potential voters to the polls.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·23h
Brazil: With 20% of votes counted, Flavio is slightly ahead, but betting markets suggest Lula is likely to overtake him at some point. Race remains extremely tight, possibly the narrowest in Brazilian history.