Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷

140 Voos
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷

Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷

@OliverStuenkel

Autor e Professor de Relações Internacionais @CarnegieEndow @Harvard @FGV Colunista @estadao @foreignpolicy https://t.co/M3PMFBcJmc

Cambridge (MA)www.oliverstuenkel.comIngressou em março de 2026
0Seguindo31Seguidores
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·3 de abr.
Trump has now taken at least five positions on the Strait of Hormuz: 1. Iran must agree to open it, or else 2. I will open it by force (and take the oil) 3. Others should open it by force 4. It will open naturally 5. The Ayatollah and I will run it together
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·3 de abr.
“Clearly this was done on a whim, without a lot of thinking,” says former NSC staffer Gary Sick, of the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran. “And we’re seeing the consequences… Trump… plays a tactical game. He’s got problems and he deals with them impulsively.”
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·3 de abr.
So much for "they're running out of missiles": From the FT: "UAE records highest number of Iranian attacks since early March. The United Arab Emirates’ defence ministry has recorded its highest daily number of Iranian attacks since March 8th: 47 drones, 18 ballistic missiles and
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·3 de abr.
Hegseth is already so ridiculed ("Secretary of War Crimes" is one of the nicer names I've heard about him) and George and Hodne, both 4 stars, were widely respected, that I don't think this will have the impact Hegseth thinks it will have.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·2 de abr.
The US military reportedly committed a "double tap" strike in Iran. The "two strikes had hit the bridge around an hour apart, the second arriving while emergency responders were assisting the wounded," even though rescue workers are protected civilians. trib.al/KRzSayT
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·2 de abr.
Remarkable reporting on how Iran is beginning to implement the new Hormuz Aya-toll: 1. Toll negotiations begin at $1/barrel 2. IRGC "vetting" to make sure ships not from "hostile" nations 3. Payment in yuan or stablecoin 4. Ships get "passcode" and "patrol boat" escort
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·2 de abr.
The threat of NATO’s break-up, easing sanctions on Russia, a massive energy crisis in Europe, halting aid for Ukraine and blocking the loan for Kyiv by Orbán - it all looks like Putin’s dream plan.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·2 de abr.
Tonight’s speech by Donald Trump was framed as “mission nearly complete.” But listen carefully — the substance points the other way: This is not de-escalation. It’s controlled escalation.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·2 de abr.
First, China does not, in fact, "get 90% of its oil from the Strait of Hormuz." But more saliently, I will say again what I wrote and then told the @FT several weeks ago: After 10 years of dark American warnings about the need to constrain China's global ambitions, we have truly
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·1 de abr.
After a 7-year hiatus, India is about to import its first Iranian oil. At ~$100 a barrel. Quite the achievement in Washington for the long-term strenght of the economic and financial sanctions regime.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·1 de abr.
The disastrous Trump-Netanyahu war is the gift that keeps on giving for Putin. Unsanction Russian oil.☑️ Cement crucial role in providing fertilizers.☑️ Sky high oil prices refilling Kremlin's depleted coffers.☑️ Trump questioning NATO to deflect blame.☑️
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·1 de abr.
Exclusive: As FBI director, Kash Patel has focused on trying to bring a criminal case against Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-California). The lengths that Patel’s circle is going to pursue a political foe of President Trump have raised alarms within the bureau. wapo.st/3Q5ECMl
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·1 de abr.
These are the people who are always forgotten: the seafarers from India, the Philippines and other countries who we rely on to take goods around the world, but are underpaid and frequently abandoned at sea.
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷@OliverStuenkel·31 de mar.
Trump: “We’ll be leaving very soon… what happens in [Hormuz] we’ll have nothing to do with” Other countries can “fend for themselves” if they want gas or oil from the Persian Gulf.