Bolsonaro would take 50.3% to Lula’s 49.7% of valid votes, according to a BTG Pactual/Nexus survey, and 51.1% to 48.9% for Lula, according to an AtlasIntel poll https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-19/bolsonaro-and-lula-tied-in-brazil-runoff-poll-as-vote-nears?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter