Thread

What if prediction markets could do more than forecast sports or elections? @Kalshi is betting on a very different use case: F.D.A. drug approvals. C.E.O. @mansourtarek_ argues that more information about which drugs are likely to succeed could lead to smarter decisions about where to invest in drug development. This week on Freakonomics Radio, Stephen Dubner talks with Mansour and others about the promises and the pitfalls of prediction markets.