Thread

I believe Secretary Rubio is 100% committed to the cause of democracy in Venezuela, and that President Trump has doubts. That how the secretary manages this issue will determine not just the future of Venezuela but also possibly the next occupant of the White House. The secretary must know he cannot one day go home to South Florida when this is all over with the chavistas still in charge. I personally find him consistently persuasive on Venezuela and acknowledge that, if you support recovery and eventual democratization, this process has gone better than virtually any outside analyst could have imagined on Jan 2. I think the president is more worried about oil prices and his legacy and believes he has a “sure thing” in Delcy. I believe (speculate, based on public statements and reporting) that Trump is still open to Rubio’s arguments but that the worse Iran gets, the less likely he is to upset status quo in Venezuela because in his mind the two are intimately connected. I feel like when Rubio speaks publicly on this issue he is sometimes lobbying his boss. They may both wonder if this is the issue that ultimately drives them apart. At stake is a country of ~30 million but also potentially the Republican nominee for 2028. Anyway, I usually try to be less speculative in my analysis but have found over the years that these personal dynamics are so often what drive the fate of nations — two in this case. Time will tell