Thread

I don't see an easy way out of the Trump vs Lula confrontation following today's 50% tariff announcement. Trump's previous battles with Petro, Sheinbaum and Mulino de-escalated relatively quickly, but those are countries with very US-connected economies & security relationships -- and therefore incentives to seek quick accommodations. Not nearly as true for Brazil. Much of Brazil establishment sees the Bolsonaro trial as an existential battle for democracy and there is no path to dropping to the case as Trump is demanding. Lula's approval has been trending down and he may welcome a fight with nationalist overtones. Order a sandwich, this could take a while.

Nenhum Voo ainda