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After the first round of Brazil's Presidential voting on Oct. 5, Bolsonaro appeared to be the clear frontrunner to defeat Lula in this Sunday's run-off after Bolsonaro's party crushed the left all over the country and Bolsonaro finished in first round ahead of Lula. Since then, the right got a bit complacent while the left got extremely energized to try to at least save the presidency. Polls have slowly but clearly tightened. Flavio is still probably the favorite but it's now more 60/40 or 55/45 than 80/20. Lula, now 80, has run for President 7 times. If he wins, it will be his 4th victory. His party machine is ruthless and dirty and knows how to win. Lula is a generationally talented, shrewd, and charismatic politician. You can never count him out.

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