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Close to 50% of the vote in Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro contines maintaining a large 8.5 point lead over Lula. No poll predicted any margin like this. Most predicted Lula ahead with a second round needed. Definite under-counting by Brazil's major pollsters -- yet again -- of the support for Bolsonaro and his movement nationwide. Very strong night for his party. Only question is whether Bolsonaro stays above 50% and wins without a run-off. My guess is a run-off is needed, but we'll see. Most of the non Bolsonaro/Lula voters are likely to migrate to the right, not the left. Bolsonaro would be a big favorite in a run-off: