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For most of the year, I thought there was a roughly 20-30% chance that if Flavio Bolsonaro looked like he'd beat Lula, or if he did beat him, the pro-Lula wing of the Supreme Court would just bar his candidacy or overturn the election. Now I think it's about a 50% chance. This is the European tactic (Romania/France/Ukraine) and what the Dems tried to do in the US with Trump.

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