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Brazil's presidential election is about 6 weeks away (Oct. 4). Polls have long shown Lula with a modest lead over Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro (whose father, the former President, is imprisoned). The latest poll shows Lula with a 7-point lead over Bolsonaro in the first round (though 50% is needed to avoid a run-off and that's highly unlikely), and with a 4-point lead in the run-off. 2 notes: 1) The 3 candidates after Lula and Bolsonaro in the first round are basically right-wing, meaning many/most of those votes should migrate to Bolsonaro in the run-off. 2) Many polls have under-counted Bolsonaro support for years, especially in the first round of 2022. I guess if I had to bet, I'd put my money on Lula, but it's far from certain. Brazil is the last major country in South America with a center-left government. The Trump Admin is very much hoping that changes, with widespread concern/allegations that they are interfering: