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New municipal analysis in the Brazilian elections identifies a structural weakness in @LulaOficial’s recovery strategy. In municipalities where Bolsa Família beneficiaries exceed half the population, Lula’s vote share declined from 71.5% in 2022 to 68.7%, while the Bolsonaro share rose from 23.5% to 27.3%. In less program dependent municipalities, which account for approximately 59% of valid votes, Lula fell from 40% to 37%, while Bolsonaro rose to 53.9%. So, Lula lost ground even among populations expected to be most responsive to his subsidies and social policy message. Lula’s campaign is therefore preparing a more aggressive runoff message: emphasizing and exaggerating the social and economic benefits voters might lose under Bolsonaro in hopes of stopping the bleeding.