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It’s election day in Brazil 🇧🇷 and from here in São Paulo, I must admit that the overwhelming emotion is anxiety. The anxiety is less that Lula will underperform or that Flavio Bolsonaro will overperform, although both fears are palpable everywhere. The anxiety is more that our models of voter behavior are completely outdated, that we no longer understand what moves people at the margin to vote one way or another. Call it a symptom of hyperpolitics if you want: the old unions, parties, and movements no longer command social majorities or set lines for militants that determine electoral outcomes. But looking ahead to the second round, it seems clear that social media algorithms are doing more to shape voter attitudes than social policy in this country. And not only here! This is what we saw in Colombia as well: the rise and rise of the ultra-right, despite Petro delivering on key plants of his majoritarian program. 150 million Brazilians now go to the polls, but any “pundit” or “Brazil-watcher” selling you on a simple theory of what’s going on in their minds is lying. Off we go, then. I’ll do my best to report throughout the day from on the ground with the @ProgIntl delegation (pictured here). Bora Lula ♥️