Daniel Lacalle Official Account

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Daniel Lacalle Official Account

Daniel Lacalle Official Account

@dlacalle_IA

Official English Account. PhD #ChiefEconomist Tressis #Author. #Professor @IEbusiness @frdelpino. YouTube: https://t.co/sjWtBdfIT7

dlacalle.com/enIngressou em junho de 2026
The Fed has a dual mandate: Price stability and maximun employment. A rate hike now goes against both. ✖️ It will do nothing to gas, diesel prices or shelter costs. ✖️ It will hurt job creation, investment and domestic production. It would engineer a private sector recession.
Markets price a 90% probability of a Fed hike, but the data do not justify monetary panic. August CPI was lifted by energy. Rate hikes do not drill a single well, build a pipeline, or lower gasoline prices. What they do is raise mortgage, credit card, and business-financing cos…
Why energy prices are not affecting growth as badly as estimates expected. Since 1980 the world economy grew 4.6x. Energy use grew 2.3x. Energy intensity of global GDP is down 49%, from 6.90 to 3.53 MJ per PPP dollar. Every dollar of output now takes half the energy. Efficie…
One unit of currency in taxpayer's pocket: Same units created returned to the private sector. Saved, invested, or spent. One unit of currency in the government's pocket: Spent multiple times over, mostly in current spending and bureaucracy, leading to higher taxes in the future…
No, giving each taxpayer $5,000 back is not the same as the government spending $5,000 more per taxpayer. Giving money back to the private sector that earns it is not inflationary. Spending is. Criticize the Trump promise if you want, but don't say government spending and retur…
The oil market is going to shift from scarcity premium to oversupply very quickly. War matters for the spot price premium. Fundamentals of supply and demand matter for mid-term prices. The oil market is not about months headlines, it is about years. Via BCA
Today’s U.S. data undermine the “recession” narrative and shows there is no overheating: PPI: +0.4% MoM, +5.4% YoY, above expectations. Initial jobless claims: 206,000. Continuing claims: 1.774 million. Producer-price inflation is accelerating, layoffs remain low, and core pi…
Let me get this straight. The ECB sees risk of weak growth... and hikes rates. Engineering the private sector recession. First, by creating persistent inflation, now hiking for no reason in an external energy shock. European Central Bank hikes interest rates to 2.5% as policyma…
The ECB will likely hike with zero evidence of an overheated economy. Core inflation FELL to 2.4%. Services fell to 3.0%. The entire jump to 3.3% is energy: +14.3%. Raising rates will not print one barrel of oil or one molecule of gas. It passes the whole burden of monetary r…
Spain's illegal immigration debacle. A warning to Europe and America. More than a month after, Sánchez says Ceuta has to accept "a structural reality" with thousands of migrants: "They are not invaders." He suggests that the 6,000 new reception places in Ceuta will be permanent:…
The idea that socialism delivers affordability has always failed. Across Europe, countries that have constantly expanded public spending, taxation, transfers, and regulation have ended up with stagnation, higher debt, rising prices, and social discontent rather than ease of cost…
Oil prices are very far away from crisis levels in real and nominal terms. Brent is near $96 per barrel. In today's dollars, the 2008 crisis peak was $202, the Arab Spring $183, the 1980 oil shock $162 and the 2022 Ukraine war spike $139. Each geopolitical event creates new sup…
Blaming "austerity" for the current bond crisis, with government spending at 42% of GDP across the G7, is like blaming obesity on insufficient cake intake. France 57%. Germany 52%. Italy 51%. Canada 45%. UK 44%. And rising. Bond markets are not punishing thrift, because there h…
US federal budget, 2002 vs. 2025: Receipts: $1.85tn → $5.24tn (+183%) Outlays: $2.01tn → $7.01tn (+249%) Deficit: -$0.16tn → -$1.77tn Revenues nearly tripled. Spending rose $5tn against $3.4tn of new revenue. For every extra dollar collected since 2002, the government spent $1.…
The headlines may be dominated by the U.S., but the global debt problem is widespread and led by France and the UK. Hey, feel free to buy eurozone debt vs. Treasuries, but the bet is dangerous, to say the least. via Bloomberg
Some blame rising borrowing costs on "austerity." UK public spending: 39.1% of GDP in 2019, 44.6% in 2025. Deficit up from 2.6% to 4.3%. Debt has risen from 84.5% to 94.3% of GDP, now £2.98 trillion. That is not austerity. That is a decade of permanent overspending. If more sp…
Liz Truss was forced to resign because bond yields rose, and the mainstream blamed her mini-budget. Four years and three interventionist budgets later, the UK 30-year gilt yield is at 5.9%, the highest since 1998, and the highest long-dated borrowing cost in the G7. The 10-year…
Thank you, Yellen. Corporate net interest payments have fallen to 0.4% of GDP because firms locked in record-low fixed rates during the pandemic. The US government did not extend the maturity of its debt outstanding when interest rates were close to zero and now pays 3.6% of GDP…
The Spanish government is in power with a coalition of antisemitic, pro-terrorist extreme left parties. Don't worry about a region in Germany. Worry about the extremists ruling one of the largest EU economies. You are welcome.
Dear European politicians: Stop whining about the "extreme right" in Germany when you have whitewashed socialism and the extreme left in Europe for years. Years of socialist agenda have demolished Europe's economy and now you ask why people say "enough"? Get real.
Germany is a warning. Years of social democracy, interventionism, regulatory obsession, crippling taxes, and anti-nuclear policies have destroyed competitiveness, weakened industry, and suffocated the primary sector. The SPD and CDU share responsibility. AfD is winning because…
Few statements are more racist, xenophobic, and classist than: “Illegal immigrants are necessary because they will look after our elderly and clean our homes.” It is not only false. It is profoundly classist.
The mainstream narrative says the world is fleeing U.S. debt. The data say something entirely different. 30-year yields have risen across every major developed sovereign issuer, and the U.S. is not even close to the worst performer. Japan, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy hav…
Big government, high taxes, and money printing created the affordability crisis. More bureaucracy raises costs. Higher taxes reduce disposable income and investment. Printing money erodes purchasing power. You cannot solve a cost-of-living crisis by making the state larger, the t…