Today’s massive Al-Qaeda (JNIM) offensive in Mali shows that Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and northern Nigeria are all in danger of falling under total control of jihadist control.
However, Sudan is another nearby state which could also become fully controlled by Islamists, and some sense is already very far down that path.
This map below shows the states where Islamist have had partial control of the state, been close to taking control of the state through civil war or where they currently control large swaths of territory.
The Muslim Brotherhood has had a very strong grip on Sudan for decades, and the islamist fighters they provide for General Al-Burhan and the Sudanese Armed Forces in the civil war only strengthen their hand in that country.
Following the Arab Spring, Muslim Brotherhood-controlled parties came to power in Egypt and Tunisia, but were quickly outmanoeuvred by the military and other autocratic forces respectively.
As already mentioned, Al-Qaeda or ISIS-aligned forces are on the verge of taking control of large parts of the junta-led states Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso which have created the anti-Western and pro-Russin military pact called “Alliance of Sahel States” (AES).
The main Islamist threat there, the Al-Qaeda-aligned JNIM group has maintained its transnational jihadist character, unlike the Islamist forces in control of Afghanistan and Syria. This means that there a large spillover risk, with JNIM likely having ambitions to further invade Guinea, Chad and northern Nigeria if they manage to take power in the AES states.
Islamist forces played a key role in the civil wars in Libya and Algeria while they currently hold large swaths of territory in both Somalia and Mozambique.
And in the middle of it all is Sudan, from where Muslim Brotherhood-style Islamism can radiate across the region. It’s not a coincidence that Osama bin Laden made Sudan the man base of Al-Qaeda in the 1990s.
Today, the Muslim Brotherhood wields significant influence in the country by being deeply embedded in the country’s army (SAF) as well as through its powerful own armed group, the al-Baraa Bin Malik Brigade.
Its 20,000 Islamist fighters have been backed by Iranian IRGC training and drones, providing an interesting example of how the Islamic Regime in Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood cooperate globally.
Alarmed by the Islamist advance in Sudan, the U.S. designated the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization last month.
Meanwhile, the EU has applied only targeted sanctions on select individuals and entities, wary of complicating aid or diplomacy by terror-listing the Sudanese
Muslim Brotherhood.
During the Berlin Conference on Sudan which took place on April 15, the EU managed to lead the way for a 1.5B aid pledge for Sudan (the EU’s share is €812M).
During the conference, the EU again made it clear that it doesn’t want to take action against the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan, but instead wants to strengthens Sudan’s democratic movement (the Sumud Alliance) & have the so-called “Quintet” play a larger role in pushing the warring factions to accelerate the peace process.
The Quintet on Sudan is composed of 5 major international & regional organizations:

- The African Union (AU)
- The United Nations (UN)
- TheEuropean Union (EU)
- The Arab League (LAS)
- The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
IGAD is in turn a regional economic bloc consisting of 8 nations across the Horn of Africa, the Nile Valley and the African Great Lakes:

- Djibouti
- Ethiopia
- Kenya
- Somalia
- Sudan
- Uganda
- Eritrea
- South Sudan
The EU’s focus on multilateral diplomacy Is important but it doesn’t excuse the unwillingness to terror-list the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood.
As its northern neighbor, and affected by mass-immigration from the south, Europe must do more than eradicate the Islamist threat from the northern part of the African continent.
ISIS, AQ and the MB must not be allowed to control territory