I couldn’t agree more with this analysis and with the fact that Israel’s 3 stated objectives have not been met. I would add that Israel may find that threats to its security have, in fact, significantly increased as a result of the war. A few reasons:
1. One major unknown is what conditions would compel Iran to stop the fighting. It is unlikely to halt lobbing missiles and drones simply because Israel’s appetite for the war has ended. And whatever conditions lead Iran to accept some sort of ceasefire are unlikely to favour Israel.
2. At the regional level, Iran will want security guarantees in the Gulf and extract concessions in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Again, there is no scenario in which these demands favour Israel’s interests.
3. Israel is now bogged down in Lebanon. It had been counting on the US to take the lead in confronting Iran while it focused on Hezbollah. But if the US withdraws, Iran could play a more proactive role in supporting its regional allies. While there is debate about Iran’s capacity to support its non-state allies as it once did, a less distracted and defensive Iran still poses a challenge to Israel’s prospects in its fight against other adversaries. Furthermore, Iran may choose to make any ceasefire conditional on Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon. Demands for an Israeli withdrawal —regardless of how firmly they are upheld— will enjoy widespread support in the international community.
4. This war is damaging for everyone. It is battering the global economy and adversely affecting energy and food security. As such, it is resented by people and states worldwide, including some of Israel’s allies. And everybody in the international community understands that this war of choice is, essentially, Israel’s war, which will reinforce the view of Israel as a destabilizing actor in the international system.
5. This perception will also affect the US, potentially leading to long-term consequences for the US–Israel relationship. If not under the current administration, then perhaps under the next. The war and its outcome will strengthen voices inside the US that have been critical of Israel’s influence on US foreign policy, whether among “America Firsters” or progressives, with AIPAC emerging as a net loser from this crisis.
None of this constitutes an Israeli victory.